现状防御条件下历史极端大旱重演影响分析——以明崇祯大旱为例

开展历史典型场次特大干旱事件重演研究,能够为极端状况下的干旱灾害防御提供参考,具有重要的战略意义。本文提出了历史特大干旱重演影响分析方法,并以明崇祯大旱为例,开展现状防御条件下重演情景分析,估算一旦发生明崇祯大旱对供水、粮食以及经济的可能影响。研究结果表明:在现状自然地理和水利工程条件下,若发生类似明崇祯大旱,核心旱区9省市连续7年年平均缺水率为21.9%,最高为38.7%;年平均粮食减产率为27.7%,最高为39.2%;年平均因旱直接经济损失占本区域GDP比例为5.3%,最高为11.1%;占全国GDP比例年平均达到2.2%,最高为4.53%。可见,一旦发生类似历史上的极端干旱,严重缺水将会对供水安全、粮食安全和经济安全造成重大威胁,因此需要引起高度重视,做好巨灾风险应对准备。

Impact analysis of historical extreme drought recurrence under the current defense conditions: Taking Chongzhen drought in the Ming Dynasty as an example

Research on the recurrence of historical extreme drought events can provide support for the drought disaster mitigation under extreme conditions, and it''s of great strategic significance. A set of Impact analysis method for historical extreme drought events recurrence has been proposed in this paper. By taking Chongzhen drought in the Ming Dynasty as an example, the potential impacts of this extreme drought under the current defense conditions has been analyzed, including impact on water resources, water supply security and food security. The results show that under the current conditions of physical geography and water conservancy projects, once an extreme drought like the Chongzhen drought occurred for 7 consecutive years, the average annual water shortage rate of 9 provinces and cities in the severe drought-stricken region will be 21.9%, and the highest will reach 38.7%. The average annual grain yield reduction rate will be 27.7%, the highest will reach 39.2%. The average annual direct economic loss due to drought will account for 5.3% of the regional GDP, the highest will be 11.1%. The average annual proportion of the national GDP will account for 2.2%,the highest will reach 4.53%. It can be seen that once historical extreme drought events occur, serious water shortage will pose a major threat to water supply security, food security and economic security. Therefore, it is necessary to attach great importance to it and make preparedness for catastrophe drought disaster risk.