施工导流超标洪水风险率估计的水文模拟方法

利用系统辨识技术，根据实测日径流系列建立了日径流过程的随机模拟模型. 由该模型模拟出多组导流工程服务年限中的日径流过程，经统计得出各种风险率下的设计流量与超标洪水发生次数的关系， 从而把风险率、施工年限、设计流量和超标洪水发生次数紧密联系起来， 为合理选择导流设计流量提供了依据。

Estimation of over-level flood risk of construction diversion using hydrologic simulation

Based on measured daily streamflow series, a stochastic model for daily streamflow has been developed by means of system identification technique. The method is used to generate a lot of groups of simulated daily streamflow sequences during construction diversion period. The statistical analysis of these groups gives the risk proobability corresponding to the number of time that a design discharge is exceeded. This technique takes fully into account of systematic reliability, construction period, design discharge and the duration that over-level flood occurred. It helps to determine the design discharge of diversion during construction.