21世纪前半叶长江流域水能开发

Hydraulic Energy Development of Changjiang Valley in First 5 Decades of 21st Century

The Changjiang River Valley is rich in hydraulic energy resources. A r ough estimation of the technically developable volume and the economically devel opable volume for the Changjiang River Valley was drawn out on the basis of new data. According to the estimation, the developable water energy resources of the whole valley is 257 627.60 MW with an annual energy output of 1 195.142 billion kW *h - respectively amounting to 120.6% and 116.3% of the General Investigation resu lt in 1980. The proportion of economically developable volume in the technically devel opable volume ranges the medium level in the world. According to the 3-step plan for the national economic and social development, the economic situation of our country will come up to the standard of medium-developed countries in the mid of the 21st century. Calculation reports from related departments show that the na tional electric power requirement in the Year 2050 will be 6 200 billion kW*h ( basic scheme) ～11 600 billion kW*h (ideal scheme) while the electric power req u irement of the South-west, Central and East areas of the nation within the Chang jiang River Valley will amount to 44% ～ 50 %. In order to satisfy the electric p ower requirement of the national economic and social development, the developmen t and utilization of the hydraulic energy in the Changjiang River Valley should be speeded up by stressing its strategic position and taking effective m easures. T he structure of the electric energy components of the three areas will be improv ed with the increasing proportion of the hydroelectricity. The hydroelectricity should be mainly developed in the South-west area; both the hydroelectric and fossil-f ired power should be developed in the Central China; the fossil-fired power shou ld be mainly developed in the combination of hydropower while nuclear po wer w ill be properly developed in the East China. In the Year 2050, the development o f the economically developable hydraulic energy in the whole valley will be basi call y completed and the proportion of the hydropower in the electric energy components will be 40%.