堰塞湖信息获取与溃坝洪水预测

准确及时的信息获取是开展堰塞湖灾变过程预测、溃决洪水演算、风险评估和应急处置的先决条件,溃决洪水预测则是风险评估和应急处置的技术支撑。以2018年秋在金沙江白格和雅鲁藏布江米林前后发生的4次堰塞湖及其应急处置工作为背景,分析介绍了堰塞湖应急处置的现状和存在的问题,归纳总结了在管理实践中堰塞湖在信息获取、洪水预测及其风险评估等方面积累的经验和技术手段。根据这些应急处置中相关信息获取和洪水预测技术的应用效果,提出了今后应加强的技术领域,以期为今后类似突发的堰塞湖应急处置提供借鉴。

Dammed lake information acquisition and dam breaking flood forecasting

Accurate and timely information acquisition is a prerequisite for carrying out catastrophic process forecast, outburst flood calculation, risk assessment and emergency response for a sudden occurred barrier lake, and the outburst flood forecast is the key technical support for risk assessment and emergency response. Based on the treatment work of the four barrier lakes events occurred at Baige in the Jinsha river and Milin in the Yarlung Zangbo Rivers during October to November in 2018, we analyze the current situation and existing problems of the treatment and emergency response of the barrier lake in China, including information acquisition, methodologies of flood forecasting and risk assessment under the impact of hydraulic engineering projects on the river. Using the two barrier lakes occurred at Baige in the Jinsha River as the cases, technologies and methodologies on information acquisition, flood forecast, impact analysis on hydraulic works, and risk assessment are presented. According to the applied effects, we put forward some study fields that need to be strengthened in the future. Such methodology and technologies can be of good reference value for emergency treatment of barrier lake in the future.