基于随机模拟和并行计算的水库防洪调度风险分析

由于洪水预报、洪水类型、工程状态、管理决策等诸方面不确定性因素，水库实际防洪调度不可避免地存在各种风险，水库防洪调度风险分析研究显得尤为重要。为确保防洪安全，降低大坝及下游综合洪灾损失，对水库防洪调度风险分析进行了全面梳理，分析和识别了水库防洪调度风险的关键影响因素，探明了洪水预报误差、不同典型洪水、初始起调水位和防洪调度滞时等不确定性因素。研究了基于蒙特卡罗随机模拟的不确定性因素模拟手段，建立了并行计算模式下水库防洪调度风险分析模型及其计算流程，并定量分析了不确定条件下的水库防洪调度风险。相关成果可为快速方便、科学合理的水库防洪调度运行方式和安全管理提供技术支持。

Risk analysis on reservoir flood control operation based on Monte carlo simulation and parallel computing

Due to uncertainties in flood forecasting, flood type and decision making,various risks inevitably exist in actual reservoir flood control operation. Therefore, risk analysis on reservoir flood control operation is particularly important. In order to ensure the safety of reservoir flood control and reduce upstream and downstream comprehensive flood loss, we make a comprehensive analysis on the risk of reservoir flood control operation and a identification on the key influential factors of reservoir flood control. We determines the uncertainty factors in flood forecasting error, different flood types, initial regulation-starting water level and time lag of flood control regulation. For these uncertain factors, the simulation model based on Monte Carlo is established, and a risk analysis model and corresponding computational process for reservoir flood control regulation under parallel computing is put forward. The results could provide technical support for the scientific, orderly and reasonable reservoir flood control operation.