区域水资源承载力及可持续发展综合评价研究

DPSIR是一种在环境系统中得到广泛使用的评价指标体系概念模型，它被作为衡量环境及可持续发展的一种指标体系而开发出来，主要是从系统分析的角度看待人和环境系统的相互作用。以宜昌市为例，基于DPSIR模型系统框架，构建了“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”复合系统承载力评价指标体系；运用AHP法确定了各评价指标的权重；基于Logistic对数增长方程，提出了Logistic对数承载模型；同时，引入了可持续发展综合指标测度，对社会经济可持续发展及社会经济与生态环境良性发展条件进行了判断；最后，对宜昌市水资源承载力和可持续发展水平进行了综合评价。通过对评价结果进行对比分析，可以看出：2005~2015年宜昌市水资源综合承载力发展状态较好，除了2011，2013年和2015年以外，社会经济发展是可持续的；除了2013年以外，社会经济与生态环境是良性发展的。因此，建议宜昌市在释放社会经济发展潜力的同时，应加强水资源保护和生态环境的治理工作。

Study on comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity and its development sustainability

DPSIR is a conceptual model of evaluation index system, which is widely used in environmental systems. It has been developed as an indicator system to measure the environment and sustainable development. The interaction between human and environmental system is mainly viewed from the perspective of systematic analysis. Taking Yichang, Hubei for example, we constructed an evaluation index system of "water resource-social economy-ecological environment" for water resources carrying capacity based on DPSIR model. We calculated evaluation weight for each criterion using AHP method and proposed a Logistic logarithmic calculation model based on Logistic equation; meanwhile, we introduced sustainable development evaluation indexes, and estimated the sustainable social and economical development and the virtuous conditions for the development of social economy and ecological environment. We also carried out comprehensive evaluation on carrying capacity of water resources and its developing sustainability. The results showed that comprehensive carrying capacity is in a healthy state between 2005 and 2015, and social economy develops sustainably except for 2011, 2013 and 2015. Social economy and ecological environment developed in a sound way over the years other than the year 2013. It is suggested that while tapping the potential in social and economic development, we should also promote water resources protection and ecological environment governance.