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| 西南干热河谷降水蒸发变化趋势分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 樊毅周芸邹玥李靖.西南干热河谷降水蒸发变化趋势分析[J].人民长江,2010,41(1):17-20. |
| 作者姓名： | 樊毅周芸邹玥李靖 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省水利科学研究院,四川,成都,610072 2. 农业部,成都农业遥感分中心,四川,成都,610066 3. 云南农业大学,水资源与节水灌溉重点实验室,云南,昆明,650201 |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题，四川公益性科技攻关专项 |
| 摘 要： | 应用Mann-Kendall和Spearman非参数趋势检验法对45 a西南干热河谷的雨季、枯季和年值降水、蒸发的变化趋势进行了显著性检验,在此基础上,应用基于分形理论的R/S方法对干热河谷未来降水和蒸发的变化趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明:45 a来,西南干热河谷降水变化主要呈上升趋势,趋势性强度以枯季—全年—雨季尺度递减,其中元谋站枯季和道街坝站年值变化显著,而蒸发总体呈十分显著的下降趋势,其中元谋站变化异常显著;未来一定时期内,干热河谷区内降水和蒸发的变化总体上均表现出较强持续性,即降水继续呈上升趋势,蒸发继续呈下降趋势,表明干热河谷区的降水和蒸发可能正朝向有利于人类生存和资源利用的良性方向发展。 |
| 关 键 词： | 降水 蒸发 Mann-Kendall检验法 Spearman检验法 R/S分析 西南干热河谷 |
Analysis on change trend of precipitation and evaporation in dry-hot valley in Southwest China |
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| FAN Yi,ZHOU Yun,ZOU Yue,LI Jing.Analysis on change trend of precipitation and evaporation in dry-hot valley in Southwest China[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(1):17-20. | |
| Authors: | FAN Yi ZHOU Yun ZOU Yue LI Jing |
| Affiliation: | FAN Yi1,ZHOU Yun1,ZOU Yue2,LI Jing3(1.Hydraulic Research Institute of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China,2.Remote Sensing Center of China Agriculture Ministry,Chengdu 610066,3.Key Laboratory for Water Resources , Water-saving Irrigation,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China) |
| Abstract: | The Mann-Kendall rank correlation test and Spearman rank correlation test are adopted to conduct significance test to the precipitation and evaporation tendency(including rainy season,dry season and yearly) of typical dry-hot valley in southwest China in 45 years.Then,we forecast future trends of precipitation and evaporation of dry-hot valley by fractal-theory based Rescaled Range Analysis Method.The results show that: in the last 45 years,the precipitation increases generally,and is characterized as incre... |
| Keywords: | precipitation evaporation Mann-Kendall test Spearman test rescaled range analysis(R/S) Southwest dry-hot valley |
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