青山嘴水库移民城市楼房安置后续发展趋势研究

云南青山嘴水库工程因地制宜，在国内首次提出将移民安置于城市楼房并享受20 a生活补助的安置方式，但20 a生活补助期满后移民的后续发展是否还能适应城市的社会经济发展尚不可知。以托达罗理论为基础，建立了移民在城市楼房安置后可持续发展的理想模型，并用时间序列法在现有数据的基础上对移民未来的经济能力进行预测，探寻基于现有政策的移民后续经济能力发展的趋势；结合我国十九大提出两步走战略安排，计算出预测结果与发展目标间的差距，并以此作为后续发展过程中移民所需帮扶的依据，提出帮助移民经济能力达到发展目标的具体措施。

Research on follow-up development trend of urban building settlement for immigration in Qingshanzui Reservoir

According to the actual situation, the resettlement of urban buildings mode for the Qingshanzui Reservoir Project in Yunnan Province was proposed for the first time. However, whether the follow-up development of immigrants after the expiration of the 20-year life subsidy can still adapt to the socio-economic development of the city is still unknown. Based on Todaro's theory, an ideal model for the sustainable development of migrants after resettlement in urban buildings was established in this paper, and used to forecast the future economic capacity of migrants on the basis of existing data by using time series method, and explore the development trend of migrants' economic capacity based on existing policies. Combining with the strategic arrangement put forward by the Nineteenth National Congress of CPC, the gap between the forecasted results and the development goals was calculated, which served as the basis for the assistance needed by migrants in the follow-up development process. Finally, this paper puts forward specific measures to help migrants achieve the development goals.