瑞士RS模型在金沙江流域洪水预报中的应用

为更好地服务于长江流域防汛抗旱及水资源综合管理工作,依托中瑞合作"气候变化下金沙江流域水资源与风险综合管理项目",引进瑞士RS洪水预报模型及系统,以金沙江流域作为试验区,构建了长、中、短期多尺度的RS分布式水文模型。试验应用成果表明:瑞士RS模型对高跨度、多水库、多方式径流补给的金沙江流域具有较强的适用性,模型可运用气象数值产品中降雨、蒸发、气温等数据源完成多尺度洪水预报。预报成果合理可靠,可为电力生产、水资源调配及防汛决策提供技术支撑,同时为该模型扩展至其他流域提供了重要参考。

Application of Swiss RS Model in flood forecast in Jinsha River Basin

Based on China-Swiss cooperation projects Jinsha River Basin Integrated Water Resources and Risk Management under Changing Climate, we introduced the Swiss RS flood forecast model and system to better serve flood control and drought relief and integrated water resources management in Yangtze River basin. Based on the model, we selected the Jinsha River Basin as an experimental zone and constructed a long-middle-short multi-scales and distributed RS hydrological model. The results show that Swiss RS model has a high adaptability to the Jinsha River Basin that is characterized as large elevation difference, many reservoirs and multiple runoff discharge ways. The model can be used for multi-scale flood forecasting by using the data sources such as rainfall, evaporation and temperature provided by the meteorological numerical products. The forecast result is reliable and reasonable, so that it can provide technical support for power generation, water resource allocation, flood control decision and important reference for expanding the RS model to other complex areas.