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吉林省水资源短缺风险等级评价及预测
引用本文:秦晋,刘树峰.吉林省水资源短缺风险等级评价及预测[J].人民长江,2016,47(21):39.
作者姓名:秦晋  刘树峰
作者单位:吉林省水利水电勘测设计研究院,吉林 长春,130021
基金项目:水利部公益行业科研专项项目"松花江流域粮食生态安全水供求若干关键技术"(201501013)
摘    要:采用2005~2014年的吉林省水资源相关数据,利用灰色关联分析法,选出水资源短缺的主要相关风险因子,对水资源系列进行模糊聚类,并采用灰色系统法对2015~2020年的水资源短缺风险进行预测。结果表明,水资源总量、三大产业用水量、其他生活用水及常住人口等指标与吉林省水资源短缺的关联度较大。在2008年以前,吉林省主要处于中等缺水等级,而在2008年以后,吉林省的缺水等级波动较大,主要是受到了当地气候及采取的水利措施的影响。如果按照现阶段吉林省水利发展情况,在非极端枯水年的情况下,直到2018年,吉林省都不会面临缺水的风险;如果有效调整吉林省的工业生产结构,控制常住人口数量,采用更有效的管理措施,则会有效地缓解2018年以后吉林省的水资源短缺状况。

关 键 词:水资源短缺风险    灰色关联分析法    模糊聚类分析    灰色系统    吉林省  

Evaluation and prediction of risk level of water resources shortage of Jinlin Province
Abstract:On the basis of relevant data of water resources of Jilin Province from 2005 to 2014, the main risk factors of water shortage were selected by using Grey Relational Analysis method to carry out a fuzzy clustering of the water resources serial, and the water shortage risk of 2015 to 2020 was predicted by gray system method. The results show that the indexes of total water resources, industrial water demand, water for other domestic use and permanent residents are highly related to the water resources shortage of Jilin Province. Before 2008, the shortage mainly stayed in the medium level, and after 2008 the water shortage level fluctuated, mainly influenced by local climate and water conservancy measures. Under the current development of water conservancy facilities in Jilin Province, there will be no water shortage risk until 2018 unless the extreme dry year occurs. The water resources shortage after 2018 will be alleviated if we effectively adjust the industrial structure, control the number of permanent residents and adopt more effective management measures.
Keywords:water shortage risk  gray relational analysis method  fuzzy cluster analysis  Jilin Province  
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