河道洪水实时预报模型及在寸滩—螺山河段的应用

采用水力学和水文学相结合的方法，根据河道非恒定流的圣维南方程组，建立了河道洪水相应涨至预报模型和扩散波洪水预报模型，既可预报流量，又可预报水位。在模型的实时校正技术中，采用了具有时变遗忘因子的递推最小二乘实时校正算法，提高了参数实时跟踪能力和辨识精度。相应涨差实时预报模型和扩散波实时预报模型在寸滩－螺山河段上的应用均获得较好的效果。

Real-time flood forecasting model and its application

Based on Saint Venan's unsteady flow equations and combining hydraulics and hydrology, a real-time flood forecasting model has been developed taking increment of flood stage rise as well as flood wave diffusion into consideration. This model is capable of forecasting both discharge and stage of flood. The method of recurrent least square calculation may rectify the error caused by missing factors, thus facilitate real-time tracing ability and ensure forecasting accuracy. Successful application of this model for Cuntan-Luoshan river strettch is reported.