连续API模型在沂河临沂站径流预报中的应用

洪水模拟和预报对于流域防洪、灌溉和供水等具有重要意义。构建了API模型模拟沂河临沂站流量过程。基于该站2006~2012年(共7 a)的降雨和流量资料,建立了降雨径流相关图,根据时段径流差求得时段净雨量;用瞬时单位线进行汇流计算得到流量过程,并与实测结果进行对比和评定。结果表明,连续API模型在该站模拟效果较好,合格率在70%以上,确定性系数大于0.9,可以用于作业预报。

Application of continuous API hydrological model at Linyi Hydrological station of Yihe River

Flood simulation and forecast play an important role in flood control, irrigation and water supply in river basin. API model is constructed to simulate the flow process of the Yihe River at Linyi Hydrological Station. Based on the rainfall and runoff data at Linyi Hydrological station between 2006 and 2012 (seven years in total), rainfall-runoff correlation graph was established first and net precipitation yield in a period was calculated by the runoff difference in various time spell. Flow process was obtained by instantaneous unit hydrograph, and was compared and evaluated against the measured results. The results show that the continuous API model performs well in the simulation with a qualification rate of over 70 percent and certainty coefficient of 0.9, which is applicable in operational forecast.