长江上游水库群2016年洪水联合防洪调度研究

随着长江上游水库群不断建成投入运行，水库群联合防洪调度势在必行。在分析研究长江洪水组合遭遇和重要防洪对象防洪需求的基础上，采用集合与解耦相结合的方法，按照就近有效与遏制洪源相结合的原则，提出长江上游水库群联合防洪调度总体布局。以防御长江1954年洪水为目标，分析了联合防洪调度的效益；回顾了水库群联合调度方案指导下2016年实际防洪调度的过程及当时的考量，总结分析了水库群联合调度的成效，提出了长江流域水库群联合调度的下一步努力方向。

Study on co-regulation of reservoirs in upper reaches of Changjiang River in 2016 for flood control

With the successive completion and operation of the reservoirs in upper reaches of Changjiang River, the co-regulation of the reservoir group is imperative for flood control. On the basis of analyzing the flood encounter law of Changjiang River and flood control demand of protection objects, according to the principle of proximity and effectiveness and the principle of flood source controlling, the general arrangement of co-regulation of the reservoirs in upper reaches of Changjiang River is put forward by combining aggregation and decoupling. In the light of the 1954-tpye flood, this paper analyzes the flood control effect by the co-regulation, reviews the practical process of flood control regulation in 2016 under the guidance of the co-regulation scheme and the consideration in that time, summarizes the effect of co-regulation for flood control, and puts forward the direction co-regulation for flood control in the future.