| 随机模拟法在滑坡可靠性分析中若干规律的讨论 |
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| 引用本文： | 余宏明,祝艳波,刘勇,张万涛.随机模拟法在滑坡可靠性分析中若干规律的讨论[J].人民长江,2011,42(9):43-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余宏明 祝艳波 刘勇 张万涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学,工程学院,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 以三峡库区某滑坡为研究对象，对基于Monte-Carlo法的滑坡可靠性分析中的若干规律进行了初步探讨。研究发现，随机变量的概率分布类型对滑坡破坏概率的影响较小，且随机变量服从不同概率分布时稳定性系数样本均近似服从正态分布；模拟次数小于1 000时，模拟次数对破坏概率影响较大，当模拟次数达到7 000次时，则破坏概率计算结果趋于稳定；随机变量的变异系数对滑坡破坏概率的影响较大，且破坏概率随随机变量变异系数的增大而增大。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 可靠性分析 Monte-Carlo法 破坏概率 |
Discussion on some regularities in reliability analysis of landslide based on Monte-Carlo method |
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| YU Hongming,ZHU Yanbo,LIU Yong,ZHANG Wantao.Discussion on some regularities in reliability analysis of landslide based on Monte-Carlo method[J].Yangtze River,2011,42(9):43-46. |
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| Authors: | YU Hongming ZHU Yanbo LIU Yong ZHANG Wantao |
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| Affiliation: | YU Hongming,ZHU Yanbo,LIU Yong,ZHANG Wantao(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China) |
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| Abstract: | Tudiling landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area is taken as research object in this paper,and some regularities in reliability analysis of landslide are discussed based on Monte-Carlo method.It is found that probability distribution type of random variables has small influence on failure probability of landslide and stable coefficients obey normal distribution approximately irrespective of distributions of random variables;simulation times have large influence on failure probability when simulation times ... |
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| Keywords: | landslide reliability analysis Monte-Carlo method failure probability |
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