长江流域水资源预测技术

水资源预测作为现有水文、气象预报的一种拓展,必须以现有水文、气象预报手段为基础,充分利用现有的信息化技术,从气候、地理、水文水资源、水环境保护等不同领域对影响水资源变化的诸多因素进行综合分析,构建水资源预测信息平台,加强对气候、水资源等方面的基础性分析研究,开展短期气候预测技术应用研究.开展长江流域水资源预测还需要结合流域内经济发展指标,对长江流域可供水资源、工农业用水、居民生活用水、生态环境用水需求量、水质监测等信息进行收集整理和分析,通过对长江流域或流域内某一地区未来降雨量的预测,对该地区可能形成的地表径流量、水质等作进一步预测,并分析其与用水需求量之间的基本规律和经验关系,建立适合长江流域水资源预测模型,并对流域内重点区域水资源质、量在未来一定时间尺度内的变化趋势进行预测,建立相应的水资源供需关系的预警机制.目的是更好地合理利用水资源、优化水资源配置,为长江流域经济和社会的可持续发展提供强有力的技术支撑.

Water resources prediction technology in the Yangtze basin

Water resources prediction technology is an expanding of the existing hydrologic and meteorological forecast,must take the existing hydrologic and meteorological forecast means as a base and fully use the existing IT technology to comprehensively analyze various influence factors of water resources variation from climate,geogrophy,hydrologic water resources,water environment protection and construct water resources prediction information platform,must strengthen analysis and research on fundamental climate,water resources etc.and application research on short-term climatic prediction technology.For the water resources prediction in the Yangtze river basin,the information on potential water resources, industrial and agricultural water use,resident domestic water,ecological and environmental water demand,water quality monitoring should be collected,sorted out and analyzed in the combination with economic development indexes in the Yangtze river basin.Through the prediction on precipitation in the basin or an area in the basin,potential surface runoff,water quality are further predicted , the basic law and empirical relation between water resource and water demand are analyzed to set up water resources prediction model suitable for the Yangtze river basin to predict the variation trend of water resources and its quality in key areas of the basin in a certain future period,set up warning system of water resources supply and demand.The objectives are to more reasonably use water resources, optimize water resources allocation,supply powerfull technologic support for the sustainable development of economy and society in the basin.