| 旱情预报技术进展与展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 马苗苗,张学君,吕娟,苏志诚. 旱情预报技术进展与展望[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 马苗苗 张学君 吕娟 苏志诚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国水利水电科学研究院;水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0206400);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费项目(JZ0145B582017)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 受全球气候变化影响和人类活动的加剧,干旱灾害发生频次增加且强度增大,严重威胁着我国的粮食安全和水安全。准确及时的旱情预报,对于制定科学有效的干旱应对策略、减少灾害造成的损失具有重大意义。从基于数理统计模型的预报技术和基于物理机制模型的预报技术两方面入手,梳理回顾了国内外研究进展,揭示了当前预报技术所存在的问题,并提出针对性的解决方案。未来研究应注重提高干旱监测数据的质量、突破核心关键技术、构建全国旱情预报业务化系统,为抗旱减灾事业提供强有力的科技支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱情预报 集合预报 陆气耦合预报 季节预报 |
Research review and perspective of droughtforecasting |
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| Affiliation: | (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038) |
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| Abstract: | The frequency and intensity of drought disasters increase due to the impact of global climate change and the aggravation of human activities,which seriously threat the food disaster prevention and water security of Chi?na.Accurate and timely drought forecasting is important for formulating scientific and effective drought mitigation strategies and reducing the corresponding losses.This study reviews the research progresses based on statistical forecasting methods and physical mechanism forecasting models.It reveals the existing problems of current fore?casting technology,and puts forward targeted solutions.The future research should focus on improving the quality of drought monitoring data,breaking through some key technologies,and building a national drought forecasting operational system,so as to provide strong scientific and technological supports for drought mitigation and disaster reduction. |
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| Keywords: | drought forecasting ensemble forecasting atmospheric-hydrological forecasting seasonal forecasting |
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