TRMM雨量在汉江上游大尺度水文模型中的应用

将TRMM（Tropic Rainfall Measurement Mission）卫星收集分析的降雨资料，利用大尺度水文模型对汉江白河以上流域进行流量模拟与预测，研究TRMM降雨资料应用于大尺度水文模型（LSHM）进行流量预测的可行性。对比分析了TRMM年、月、日系列降雨资料与气象站网降水观测资料，以及将其作为输入数据源的大尺度模型降雨径流模拟预测结果，分析表明：大尺度水文模型概念基本适合汉江上游的流量预测，水库对模拟预测结果影响显著，TRMM日降雨资料尚不满足利用该模型进行洪峰流量预报精度的要求。

TRMM Rainfall Applied in Flow Prediction of LSHM in Upper Hanjiang River Basin

With increasing demands on water resources in the upper Hanjiang River Basin, improved decision-making, within a context of weather patterns varying from year to year, requires improved models. In addition through technological innovations, TRMM data enables scientific accomplishments for hydrology and climate with promising accuracy reported. This study thus investigates the possibility of flow prediction using TRMM rainfall on the Large Scale Hydrological Model （LSHM） for the upper Hanjiang River Basin. With large geographical and climatic diversity in the upper Hanjiang River Basin, the rainfall-runoff modelling is tough as well as challenging. Data preparation and processing includes catchment schematization, daily areal rainfall and evapotranspiration estimation. Catchment schematization for the LSHM, which adopted mean elevation to upscale hydrological information consists of DEM derivation, river network generation, sub-catchment delineation, cross section schematization, land use and soil texture aggregating. Daily areal rainfall data were computed from 21 meteorological gauges, and TRMM rainfall datasets for the period 1996--2006 and 1998--2006, respectively. Comparison of daily values from different precipitation sources has been carried out to investigate the possibility of flow prediction using TRMM rainfall. The daily actual evapotranspiration for the LSHM is estimated based on the Thomthwaite monthly water balance model, the water balance was checked before the model calibration. Model parameterization has been done through trail and error, and the flow prediction from different precipitation sources has been compared and analysed to evaluate the model performance and examine the possibility of flow prediction using TRMM rainfall. The results show that： ①the LSHM could be suitable for the flow prediction in the upper Hanjiang River Basin. ② The reservoir effects seem to be a significant factor of hampering the performance of the LSHM model.③TRMM daily rainfall is not enough accurate to