基于非对称贴近度的水库移民后期扶持效果评价模型研究

国家对大中型水库移民实行前期补偿加后期扶持的政策，后期扶持工作是帮助移民重建社会和经济关系的系统工程。对于后期扶持政策的实施效果评价，目前多采用基于最大隶属度原则的模糊综合评判法。但该方法在应用过程中可能会丢失大量信息，从而引起评价结论失真。非对称贴近度方法能够在一定程度上避免最大隶属度原则的缺陷。本文首先结合文献和专家意见建立后期扶持效果评价指标体系，利用层次分析法确定指标权重，在此基础上构建基于非对称贴近度的移民后期扶持效果评价模型，并将其应用于龙门县大中型水库移民后期扶持政策实施效果评价。实例分析表明，该模型能客观地反映当地移民后期扶持的效果并揭示不足之处，评价结果较为可信、合理，可为水库移民后期扶持工作实践提供参考。

Study on evaluation model of reservoir resettlement support effect in later stage based on asymmetrical closeness degree

For the large and medium-sized reservoir resettlers, China implements the policy of compensation in the early stages and support in the later stages. The support in the later stages is a systematic project to help the resettlers rebuild social and economic relations. At present, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the principle of maximum membership is used to evaluate the implementation effect of the later supporting policies. However, this method may lose a lot of information in the process of application, which leads to the distortion of the evaluation conclusion. Asymmetric closeness degree method can avoid the defect of maximum membership degree principle to some extent. This paper combined the literature and expert opinion to build a late-stage support effect evaluation index system, and Analytic Hierarchy Process or AHP was used to determine the index weight. Then, based on the asymmetric closeness degree, a late-stage support effect evaluation model was constructed and applied to the effect evaluation of large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement policy implementation in Longmen county. The case analysis shows that the model can objectively reflect the effect of local resettlement support in the later stages and reveal the shortcomings, and the evaluation results are more reliable and reasonable, which can provide reference for the practice of reservoir resettlement support in the later stages.