HEC-HMS模型在缺资料地区山洪预报的应用研究

以桃河阳泉小流域为例,探索了HEC-HMS模型在缺资料地区山洪预报的应用可行性。产流模块采用Green-Ampt模型、坡面汇流模块采用SCS单位线、河道汇流模块采用运动波,通过流域DEM、土壤、土地利用等下垫面信息获取了主要参数,构建了山洪预报模型。在1970—2015年的流量系列中筛选出14场典型洪水场次,对模型进行了验证。结果表明,验证期洪峰流量相对误差均小于10%,平均纳什效率为0.88,对于起涨和退水速度快的单峰型洪水,模拟效果较好,通过下垫面信息获取的模型参数准确有效,达到了山洪预报的技术要求。

Application of HEC-HMS model in mountain flood forecasting in data deficient areas

Taking the Yangquan watershed of Taohe River as an example, the feasibility of HEC-HMS model in mountain flood forecasting in the lack of data area is explored. The production flow module adopts the Green-Ampt model,the slope surface convergence module adopts the SCS unit line,and the river channel convergence module adopts the motion wave. The main parameters are obtained through the information of the basin underlying surface, i.e., DEM, soil and land use, and a mountain flood forecasting model is constructed. Through the flow series from 1970 to 2015, 14 typical floods were extracted, and the model parameters were calibrated. The results show that the relative error of flood peak flow in the verification period is less than 10%,and the average Nash efficiency is 0.88. For the unimodal flood with fast rising and retreating speed,the simulation efficiency is better,and the model parameters obtained from the underlying surface information are accurate and effective,meeting the requirements of flash flood forecasting.