多年调节水库调蓄的影响因素判别与影响时长分析

以格兰杰因果关系检验为基础，提出了多年调节水库调蓄的影响因素判别与影响时长分析方法，并通过理论分析、实践总结、多元线性回归及相关关系显著性检验辅助判别因果关系的合理性。以黄河龙羊峡水库为例，结果表明：1990-2018年黄河天然径流量和地表水取水量均是龙羊峡水库补水量的格兰杰原因，影响时长均为2年，天然径流量和地表水取水量的当年值对龙羊峡水库补水量的影响强于前1年的影响；天然径流量与龙羊峡水库补水量间具有显著的线性相关关系，但地表水取水量与龙羊峡水库补水量间的线性相关关系较弱。结合龙羊峡水库调蓄机制和实践过程，发现天然径流量是龙羊峡水库调蓄的重要影响因素，地表水取水量对龙羊峡水库调蓄没有显著影响，但龙羊峡水库调蓄保障了黄河地表水的稳定供给。

Influence factors identification and influence duration analysis for multi-year regulating reservoir operation

Based on Granger causality test, this paper puts forward an identification method of influence factors and influence duration for multi-year regulating reservoir operation.The rationality of causality is tested through theoretical analysis, practice summary, multiple linear regression and correlation significance test.Taking the Longyangxia Reservoir on the Yellow River as an example, results show that:during 1990-2018, the natural runoff and surface water intake of the Yellow River are the Granger reasons for the water replenishment of the Longyangxia reservoir with 2-year influence duration;influence of natural runoff and surface water intake in the current year on the water replenishment of the Longyangxia reservoir is stronger than that in the previous year;there is a significant linear correlation between natural runoff and water replenishment of the Longyangxia reservoir, but the linear correlation between surface water intake and water replenishment of Longyangxia reservoir is very weak.Combined with the operation mechanism and practical process of the Longyangxia reservoir, the natural runoff is an important factor affecting the operation of the Longyangxia reservoir.The surface water intake has no significant impact on the operation of the Longyangxia reservoir, but its operation can ensure the stable supply of surface water in the Yellow River.