基于分布式水文模型SWAT 的缺资料地区水资源评价方法

气候变化和人类活动对流域水资源演变的影响程度不断加剧,对传统水资源评价技术方法提出了挑战。针对变化环境下缺资料地区传统水资源评价方法水量"还原"失真、水质水量评价分离、地下水和地表水评价分离等问题,本文采用了基于分布式水文模型SWAT的水资源评价方法,探讨了其评价原理、关键步骤和在缺资料地区的适用性等,并以西北内陆河玛纳斯河流域山区为例,比较了传统水资源评价方法和本文所用方法评价结果的差异。结果表明,本文所用方法在流域水资源评价精度、评价对象和水文要素的完整性、评价时段的灵活性上具有显著的优越性,证明利用具有物理机制的分布式水文模型有望实现水资源的动态、高效和快速评价,其评价原理可为水资源评价方法的改进提供一种新思路和技术支撑。

Method of water resources assessment in ungauged areas based on the distributed hydrological model of SWAT

Climate change and human activities remarkably affect water resources in watersheds, which challenge the traditional method of water resources assessment. In connection with the problems of distortion of water quantity restoration, the separate assessment of water quality and quantity, as well as groundwater and surface runoff, and other issues of traditional water resources assessment method in a changing environment in ungauged areas, this paper adopts an assessment method of water resources based on the distributed hydrological model of SWAT, and then explores its assessment principle, key steps, and the applicability in ungauged areas. Taking a northwest inland watershed-mountainous area of the Manas River basin as an example, it compares the differences of the results between the traditional water resources assessment method and the adopted method based on SWAT model. The results show that the adopted method has more significant advantages on the accuracy of assessment results, the integrity of assessment objects and elements of water cycle, the flexibility of the assessment period of water resources assessment in ungauged area. Using a distributed hydrological model based on physical mechanism may be helpful to achieve the dynamic, efficient and rapid water resources assessment.