我国缺水风险分布状况及其对策

在对风险理论及水资源风险研究进展回顾与展望的基础上，探讨了水资源短缺风险主导因子的辨识方法，提出了采用缺水率、人均缺水量和缺水边际损失3个指标的缺水风险评价指标体系，采用模糊层次分析评价方法对全国二级水资源分区的缺水风险进行了综合评价。评价结果表明，全国现状情况下有33个二级水资源分区面临着不同程度的水资源短缺风险，必须采取工程和非工程等防范措施和有效调控，方可减轻缺水风险对我国经济社会发展的危害程度。

The distribution of water shortage risk and its countermeasures in China

Based on reviewing risk theory and the development of water resources risk researches, this paper discusses the method of identifying key risk factors and introduces an index system of evaluating water shortage risk, which includes the ratio of water shortage, water shortage per capita and marginal losses. The hierarchy fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） method is adopted to evaluate the water shortage risk in different secondary zones of water resources in the whole country. The results indicate that 33 secondary zones are facing water shortage risk in different extents. Finally the paper proposes some suggestions of applying structural and non-structural countermeasures for controlling water shortage risks in order to mitigate endangerment on social and economic development in China.