基于干旱事件过程的农业旱灾风险评估研究-以辽西北为例

科学地评估旱灾风险是实施旱灾风险管理的核心内容和关键环节。本文从旱灾风险的定义和物理形成过程出发,提出了基于干旱事件过程的旱灾风险评估原理、概念模型,形成了一整套旱灾风险评估技术流程,并以位于我国东北旱灾频发、重发中心的辽西北地区为例开展了应用研究。研究表明,基于干旱事件过程的旱灾风险评估方法具有较强的物理意义,可用于快速预估一定抗旱能力条件干旱可能造成的损失,可为抗旱指挥决策提供技术支撑,具有进一步推广应用的价值。

Research on agricultural drought disaster risk assessment based on the drought event process-A case study in Northwest of Liaoning Province

Scientific drought disaster risk assessment is considered to be the core content and key element. in drought disaster risk management. Taking into consideration both the definition and physical mechanism of drought disaster risk, we have proposed the physical principle and conceptual model of drought disaster risk assessment based on the drought event process, and formulated a set of technical procedures corre-spondingly. To promote the practical application of this risk assessment method,we have carried out a case study in northwest of Liaoning Province, characterized by frequent and severe drought. The result indicates that drought disaster risk assessment based on drought event process has a strong physical meaning. This method shows a great value of future promotion, which can be employed to evaluate the potential drought loss quickly and then provide reference for drought decision making.