群坝风险评估指数排序方法的探讨

结合江西省水库的实际情况,研究了群坝的风险评估指数排序方法,综合评定了大坝工程安全风险程度因子和溃坝损失影响因子,并综合考虑水行政主管部门对水库管理因素的排序、总库容、灌溉效益、加固前期工作等情况,确定水库的综合影响因子.以这3大影响因子的乘积表示水库的风险评估指数的高低,风险指数越大,表明水库越危险,应优先得到除险加固.通过对江西省200余座不同类别的水库应用排序表明,该计算方法简单实用,可操作性强,分析结果与实际基本相符,可用于群坝除险加固排序.

Study on index-ordering method of group-dam risk evaluation

A practical calculation method of group-dam risk evaluation index ordering, which is suitable for Jiangxi Province, is presented in this paper. The dam safety risk degree factor and the dam failure influence factor are evaluated synthetically. At the same time, a comprehensive influence factor is deduced with consideration of management, total reservoir capacity, irrigation profits as well as early stage reinforce work which is decided by corresponding water administrative department. The product of the 3 factors is used to ascertain the dam risk evaluation index. A dam with higher risk index is more dangerous and should be reinforced prior to others. This method has been applied to risk ordering of 200 ill-dangerous dams in Jiangxi Province. It is proved that this method is simple, practical, and easily operable. The analysis result is in good accordance with the real situation.