少资料条件河渠冬季冰情过程模拟研究

针对天然河道开展冰情过程数值模拟普遍存在的河道断面资料、水文和气象资料缺少的难题，本研究提出了时均气温和时均太阳辐射计算方法和支流流量的动态分配方法，即根据实测日最大气温、日最小气温和日净太阳辐射率定出关键影响参数，模拟出给定气象站的时均气温和时均太阳辐射的变化过程；通过上游流量向下游传播过程的特征分析，推演出缺少支流流量条件下河道区间支流流量分配的合理比例。将本文方法应用到黄河内蒙河段冰情过程模拟计算中，模拟的巴彦高勒冰盖厚度值和冰盖前沿的发展同实测值吻合良好。本研究成果可应用到少资料条件下江、河、渠道冰情演变过程的数值模拟中，为天然河道冰情的准确模拟提供方法支撑。

Numerical modeling of winter ice process in natural rivers with limited data

Due to the limited field data on river geometry, hydrological and meteorological information, it is still a big challenge to predict ice situations in natural rivers during winter periods. In this study, a one-dimensional river ice model is presented using a new method for calculating hourly-averaged air temperature and solar radiation, and a new method for dynamic assignment of lateral inflows. Based on the measured daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature and daily net solar radiation,the most dominant parameters are calibrated to fit field observations. With these new methods, the river ice model can evaluate hourly-averaged air temperature and solar radiation for rivers lacking field data. It also provides a reasonable water assignment ratio for different lateral inflows by considering flow propagation processes from upstream to downstream. The river ice model is applied to the winter ice simulation in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River. The simulated ice thickness at the Bayanggaole Gauging Station and the ice front progression agree well with the measured data, which confirms the accuracy of the ice model. The model might be further applied to other winter ice simulations for rivers with limited field data. It provides a useful tool for simulating ice situations accurately.