基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析

对荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度进行分析研究,为实现区域水资源可持续合理利用提供科学依据。在水资源短缺评价研究中,前期研究成果大多采用常权法确定评价指标,致使评价指标产生状态失衡。将变权理论引入到水资源短缺程度分析中,从而确定评价指标变权重,并结合灰色关联法,构建水资源短缺程度分析的变权灰色关联法模型并加以应用。最终得出荆南三口地区三县的水资源短缺程度均为轻度缺水,其缺水程度排序为:华容县南县安乡县。利用变权灰色关联法计算水资源短缺程度,方法可行,结果合理,满足了评价指标均衡性要求。

Degree of Water Shortage in the Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River Calculated by Variable Weight Grey Correlation Method

The objective of the study is to analyze the water shortage in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang river and to provide scientific basis for the sustainable rational utilization of water resources in the region.The use of constant weight methods in previous studies resulted in state imbalance of evaluation indicators.In the present study,the variable weight theory is adopted to define the variable weight of evaluation indicators.Furthermore,in association with gray correlation method,the gray correlation model of water shortage is established and applied to evaluating the water shortage in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang river.The water resources in three outlets of Jingjiang river are all in small shortage,and the shortage degree in Huarong county is the largest,followed by Nanxian county and Anxiang county.The variable weight gray correlation method is feasible and reasonable in calculating water shortage degree,and it meets the requirements of a balanced evaluation.