天门市水资源承载力评价与适应性分析

为评价天门市水资源承载力情况,采用主成分分析法选取主要指标构成能较全面地代表天门市水资源承载力的简化指标体系,采用熵权法和主成分分析法对天门市2010—2014年水资源承载力进行评价,得到其水资源承载力综合评分,从而为天门市水资源可持续利用提供依据。研究结果表明:天门市水资源承载力主要受地表水资源量、用水量以及生活水平的影响并呈不断优化趋势,但综合天门市主要自然灾害为旱灾的现实情况来看,天门市对于旱季水资源量紧缺的情况缺少有效应对方法,这也极大影响了天门市的水资源承载力;在水资源承载力评价的基础上,对天门市水资源承载力适应性进行评价,认为其主要处于一般不适应和均衡状态。

Evaluation and Adaptability of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tianmen City

To provide basis for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Tianmen city, we employ entropy method and principal component analysis to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Tianmen during 2010-2014. A simplified system of indicators selected by using principal component analysis can be more fully rep-resentative of Tianmen's water resources carrying capacity. Results show that the carrying capacity of water re-sources in Tianmen is mainly affected by surface water resources quantity,water consumption and living standards. Despite the fact that the carrying capacity is improving continuously,an effective way of dealing with water shortage in dry season is in lack with drought as the major natural disaster in Tianmen.On this basis,we further evaluate the adaptability of carrying capacity,and conclude that the carrying capacity of water resources in Tianmen is slightly unsuitable or in equilibrium state.