汕头市水资源承载力评价研究

在对汕头市水资源状况及社会经济发展状况调查的基础上,结合水资源承载力评价基本原理,选取了14个适合汕头市的水资源承载力评价指标,并将承载力等级划分为3级,再分别采用RBF神经网络模型、BP神经网络模型和模糊层次综合评价模型3种方法对汕头市2000—2009年水资源承载力状况进行评价。结果表明:汕头市水资源承载力等级总体介于Ⅰ级与П级之间,情况较好,但有逐步恶化趋势;RBF神经网络模型法与模糊层次综合评价法比BP神经网络模型法评价效果好,适用性更强。

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Shantou City

Based on investigation of water resources and local economic and social development in Shantou City,we performed research on the carrying capacity of water resources in this area.We selected fourteen evaluation indexes suitable for Shantou,and classified the evaluation grades into 3 levels.RBF neural network model,BP neural network model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model were employed respectively to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources from 2000 to 2009.Results show that the carrying capacity in Shantou is between grade Ⅰ and Ⅱ,which is in a good overall situation but tends to deteriorating gradually.The evaluation effect and applicability of RBF neural network model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model are better than those of BP neural network model.