济南市水资源环境与经济发展耦合关联性测度及前景预测

结合环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)与耦合关联度模型对济南市水资源环境与经济发展间的耦合作用机理进行定性与定量研究,并利用弹性预测法对二者间的发展前景作出预测。结果表明:2005—2017年间水资源环境与经济发展存在耦合关系,且现状条件下生活用水、排污量与经济发展的耦合作用要强于工业用水。此外,结合EKC走势和预测结果,引入潜在风险控制指标和重点监控指标的概念,其中生活COD、工业NH₃-N为潜在风险控制指标;重点监控指标分别为生活NH₃-N、生活废水排放量及工业、生活用水量。研究成果可为促进济南市经济增长与水资源环境协调发展提供依据。

Coupling Correlation Measure and Prospect Forecast of Water Resources Environment and Economic Development in Jinan

The coupling mechanism between water resources environment and economic growth in Jinan City is studied quantitatively and qualitatively by integrating coupling correlation degree model with environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Meanwhile, the development prospect between the two is predicted using elasticity forecast method. Result illustrates that coupling relationship exists between water resources environment and economic growth in Jinan from 2005 to 2017. Under current conditions, the coupling between domestic water use as well as sewage and economic growth is higher than that between industry water use and economic growth. In addition, the concepts of potential risk control indicators and key monitoring indicators are introduced according to EKC trends and forecast results. Potential risk control indicators include domestic COD and industrial NH₃-N, while key monitoring indicators are domestic NH₃-N, wastewater, as well as industrial and domestic water use. The results are expected to provide basis for promoting the coordinated development between regional economy and water resources environment in Jinan.