| 考虑致灾后果的溃坝洪水风险评估与等级划分 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟颖,唐玲玲.考虑致灾后果的溃坝洪水风险评估与等级划分[J].长江科学院院报,2022,39(10):61-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟颖 唐玲玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京水利科学研究院 水利部大坝安全管理中心,南京 210029;2.南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210029;3.广西玉林水利电力勘测设计研究院,广西 玉林 537099 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407105,2018YFC0407103);国家自然科学基金项目(51979176,51779154);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y719004,Y719006) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对溃坝洪水风险受环境-荷载-人多种因素影响的不确定性,将不同洪水要素(水深、流速)联合考虑,分析洪水致灾的危险性。运用HEC-RAS二维水动力学模型和地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术,模拟溃坝洪水演进过程,从洪水到达时间、淹没范围等维度分析承载体的暴露度。针对人口分布与地理位置特征,基于人体失稳试验数据的统计规律、建筑物损毁标准进行承灾体脆弱性分析,提出基于灾害系统理论的溃坝洪水风险分析方法和溃坝洪水风险等级划分标准。可用于评估水库大坝失事风险,划分溃坝淹没区人口风险等级,为水库大坝突发事件应急救助和人口转移提供技术支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 溃坝洪水 风险评估 等级划分 危险性 暴露度 承灾脆弱性 建筑物损毁 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-11-12 |
Risk Assessment and Rating of Dam-break Flood in Consideration of Disaster Consequences |
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| MENG Ying,TANG Ling-ling.Risk Assessment and Rating of Dam-break Flood in Consideration of Disaster Consequences[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2022,39(10):61-65. |
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| Authors: | MENG Ying TANG Ling-ling |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Dam Safety Management Center of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029,China;2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;3. Guangxi Yulin Water Resources and Electric Power Survey,Design and Research Institute,Yulin 537099,China |
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| Abstract: | The risk of dam-break flood is uncertain as affected by environment,load and people.The risk of flood disaster is assessed in consideration of the depth and velocity of flood.The propagation of dam-break flood is simulated by using two-dimensional hydrodynamic model with HEC-RAS software and GIS spatial analysis technology,and the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies are analyzed from flood arrival time and inundation range.The vulnerability of disaster-bearing body is analyzed according to the experimental data of human instability and building stability criteria.Finally,the risk analysis method for dam-break flood and the risk rating standard based on the disaster system theory are proposed to assess the risk of dam failure,classify the risk level of population in dam-break flood inundated area,and to provide technical support for planning and preparing the rescue and migration in dam emergency. |
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| Keywords: | dam-break flood risk assessment rating risk exposure vulnerability building damage |
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