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岩爆综合预测的模糊概率方法
引用本文:刘章军,李建林.岩爆综合预测的模糊概率方法[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(4):42-45.
作者姓名:刘章军  李建林
作者单位:1. 三峡大学,土木水电学院,湖北,宜昌,443002;同济大学,土木工程学院,上海,200092
2. 三峡大学,土木水电学院,湖北,宜昌,443002
摘    要: 在综合分析岩爆发生条件的基础上,从岩性条件、应力条件和围岩条件3个方面,分别选取能量储耗指数、岩石脆性指数、弹性应变能指数、线弹性能、切向应力准则、地应力指数、强度系数以及岩体质量RQD 8个指标作为影响岩爆的主要因素。利用模糊概率理论,提出了一类新的岩爆综合预测方法,该方法较全面地考虑了岩爆评价中的模糊性与随机性,给出了岩爆影响因素的模糊权重,避免经典模糊综合评判方法在权重取值上的局限性。

关 键 词:岩爆  综合预测  模糊概率方法
文章编号:1001-5485(2007)04-0042-04
修稿时间:2007-03-08

Comprehensive Prediction Method for Rock Burst Based on Fuzzy Probability Theory
LIU Zhang-jun,LI Jian-lin.Comprehensive Prediction Method for Rock Burst Based on Fuzzy Probability Theory[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2007,24(4):42-45.
Authors:LIU Zhang-jun  LI Jian-lin
Abstract:By analyzing and classifying the basic conditions of rock burst occurrence,and considering rock properties,stress state of rock mass and surrounding rock conditions,eight factors are chosen as the indexes of criterion for rock prediction,such as rock energy accumulation and dissipation,the compressive and tensile strengths of rock,rock brittleness,the elastic strain energy of rock,the tangential stress of surrounding rock,the intensity coefficient of rock and rock quality designation(RQD).A new model established using fuzzy probability theory is proposed to predict rock burst occurrence and its intensity.The fuzzy weight of every factor is given in the method,and the random and fuzzy factor of rock burst prediction is considered to avoid the limitation of the classical method of fuzzily comprehensive evaluation.
Keywords:rock burst  comprehensive prediction  fuzzy probability method
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