基于熵理论-可拓云模型的引水隧洞塌方风险评价

为有效预防引水隧洞施工期塌方事故的发生,结合既有研究成果及工程实际情况,构建多指标参数的引水隧洞塌方风险评价指标体系,运用偏好比率法和反熵权法对各指标因素进行权重分析;同时考虑引水隧洞施工中塌方风险因素的不确定性以及评价等级划分的模糊性,建立了基于熵理论-可拓云模型的引水隧洞塌方风险评价模型。以珠江三角洲水资源配置工程中东莞分干线单线引水隧洞的9段典型隧洞为研究对象进行评价,结果表明:GS19+590—GS20+050、GS20+050—GS21+340、GS22+226—GS22+553、GS24+911—GS26+035段引水隧洞塌方风险等级为Ⅱ级,属于中度风险;GS21+340—GS22+226、GS22+553—GS23+788、GS23+788—GS24+911、GS26+035—GS27+700、GS27+700—GS28+061段引水隧洞塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,属于高度风险。评价结果与工程实际情况吻合,验证了该方法在隧洞塌方风险评价中的实用性与有效性。

Risk Assessment of Water Diversion Tunnel Collapse Based on Entropy Theory and Extension Cloud Model

The aim of this research is to effectively prevent water diversion tunnel from collapse during construction. According to previous research results and engineering practice, an index system for assessing the collapse risk of water diversion tunnel was established. The preference ratio method (PRM) and anti-entropy weight (AEW) were employed to analyze the weight of each index factor. Moreover, in consideration of the uncertainty of risk factors and the fuzziness of assessment rating, a risk assessment model for diversion tunnel collapse was constructed based on entropy theory and extension cloud model. The collapse risks of nine typical segments of the single line diversion tunnel of Dongguan branch in the Pearl River Delta water resources allocation project were assessed as case study. Results demonstrated that: the collapse risk level of diversion tunnel GS19+590-GS20+050, GS20+050-GS21+340, GS22+226-GS22+553 and GS24+911-GS26+035 segments was grade II, implying moderate risk; the risk level of GS21+340-GS22+226,GS22+553-GS23+788,GS23+788-GS24+911,GS26+035-GS27+700, and GS27+700-GS28+061 segments is grade III, indicating high risk. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation of the project, which verifies the practicability and effectiveness of the method in tunnel collapse risk assessment.