以速率为参量的GM(1,1)滑坡时间预报模型研究

以摩擦学和灰色系统为理论基础,建立了以速率为参量的滑坡GM(1,1)时间预报模型,推导出滑坡时间预报公式,结合黄茨滑坡、新滩滑坡进行了预报分析,并与传统的以位移为参量的GM(1,1)、Verhulst预报模型预报结果进行对比。结果表明:以速率为参量的GM(1,1)滑坡预报模型能够提前预报滑坡;与传统的以位移为参量的GM(1,1)相比,预报时间更接近滑坡实际发生时间;与传统的以位移为参量的Verhulst模型相比,以速率为参量的GM(1,1)模型不仅能够提前预报滑坡,而且能够更加准确地反映滑坡的位移变化趋势。因此,建议采用以速率为参量的GM(1,1)滑坡时间预报模型对滑坡进行预报分析。

GM (1,1) Model of Landslide Time PredictionBased on Velocity Parameters

With tribology and grey system as theoretic basis, a GM(1,1) model of landslide time prediction based on velocity parameter is established, and the landslide time forecast formula is deduced. Huangci landslide and Xintan landslide are taken as case study. The prediction result is compared with those obtained by traditional GM(1,1) model based on displacement parameter and Verhulst model. Results conclude that compared with the GM(1,1) model based on displacement parameter, the GM(1,1) model based on velocity parameter could predict landslide in advance, with the time closer to the factual landslide occurrence time; compared with traditional Verhulst model based on displacement parameter, the GM(1,1) model based on velocity parameters could reflect the change trend of landslide more accurately in addition to prediction in advance. Therefore, the GM(1,1) model based on velocity parameter is recommended for landslide time prediction.