基于改进模糊集分析法的汛期分期

传统的模糊集分析法进行汛期分期过程中,在汛期区间与阈值的确定方面存在主观性较强的问题,同时该方法只能考虑单一的因素,针对这些问题提出改进模糊集分析法。使用变异系数法计算指标权重,用每个旬的所有指标加权组合成为一个综合指标,以代替原来的单一指标;使用模糊集合分析法计算隶属度,划分汛期与非汛期,最后在汛期区间内,使用均值变点分析法寻找变点,并以此进行汛期分期。改进的模糊集分析法的分期结果与数理统计法、传统模糊集合分析法的汛期分期结果大体一致,说明提出的改进模糊集分析法适用性强。

Flood Season Staging Based on Improved Fuzzy Set Analysis

In traditional fuzzy set analysis of flood season staging,the identification of interval and threshold of flood season is strong subjectivity,and in the meantime,only single factor is considered.In view of these problems,an improved fuzzy set analysis method is proposed.Index weights are calculated by using the variation coefficient method,and then all the indexes in every ten days are combined to obtain a comprehensive index to replace the original single indicator.Subsequently,the membership degree is calculated by fuzzy set analysis method,and flood season and non-flood season are divided.Finally,flood season staging is completed by searching the change point through the mean shift point method.The staging result of the improved fuzzy set analysis is generally consistent with those of mathematical statistics method and traditional fuzzy set analysis method.The improved fuzzy set analysis method proposed in this paper is proved to be of high applicability.