额尔齐斯河流域气候变化特征分析

选取新疆额尔齐斯河流域富蕴、阿勒泰、哈巴河气象站1962—2013年实测逐月降水与气温资料,采用复Morlet小波分析法、R/S分析法及相关水文统计方法对流域气温变化特征及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:额尔齐斯河流域内3个气象站年降水量、年平均气温均呈现出上升趋势,同时流域年降水量呈现出多个时间尺度的相对丰枯交替特征,富蕴、阿勒泰、哈巴河气象站主震荡周期分别为22 a,18 a,22 a;赫斯特指数表明未来额尔齐斯河流域内年平均气温总体上继续保持上升趋势,且其未来年份年平均气温上升趋势的变化程度为:富蕴>哈巴河>阿勒泰。

Characteristics and Trend of Precipitation Changes over Irtysh River Basin

According to monthly precipitation data from three meteorological stations (Fuyun, Aletai, and Habahe)in the Irtysh River Basin from 1962 to 2013, we employed Mann-Kendall method, Morlet wavelet analysis method, R/S analysis method, and other hydrological statistical method to analyze the characteristics and trends of precipitation variation at these stations. Results suggest that the annual precipitations at these stations all present a trend of increase, with the trend rate of 17.91mm/10a, 17.47mm/10a, and 17.37mm/10a respectively. The annual precipitation series have significant periodic variation with main oscillation cycle of 22a, 18a, 22a and characteristic time scales of alternative wet-dry years. The Hurst values indicate that the trend of increase in precipitation at these three stations will continue in the future, and the largest increment of precipitation is at Fuyun station, followed by Aletai and Habahe.