胶州湾海域中随机因素对流场模拟结果的影响

随着电子计算机技术的发展，数值模拟技术在海洋环境中得到广泛应用。数值模拟是采用数值计算方法求解一系列微分方程，由确定的输入条件得到确定的输出结果。而自然现象是由多种因素引起的，如：天文因素、气象因素、海洋因素、地质因素、地形因素等，这些因素都是随机的。在模型的输入中存在着不确定性，因而使得模型的输出也是随机的。本文对胶州湾海域潮流场进行了数值模拟计算，在模型中对输入、输出进行了不确定性分析和敏感性分析，并给出了输出结果的长期变化值及基于一定概率水平的置信区间，该结果在工程设计中具有一定的意义。

Influence of random factors on tidal current field in Jiaozhou Bay

Most widely used numerical models for sea environments focus on solving series of differential equations. The causes of natural events such as astronomical, meteorological, oceanographycal and geomorphologic factors are random. There are some uncertainties involving in the input of numerical model. Correspondingly the output of numerical model is also random. In this paper, based on the numerical model of tidal wave, the uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, long-term variation are taken into consideration. For output sea level and velocity of tidal current, the formula for estimating their confidence intervals is derived. Predicted confidence interval is significant for engineering design.