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模式水平分辨率对梅雨锋降水定量预报的影响
引用本文:王春明,王元,伍荣生.模式水平分辨率对梅雨锋降水定量预报的影响[J].水动力学研究与进展(A辑),2004,19(1):71-80.
作者姓名:王春明  王元  伍荣生
作者单位:南京大学中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京,210093
基金项目:国家重点课题CHERES(G1998040907),国家自然基金(40175025,49735180),江苏省自然基金(BK99020)
摘    要:利用三维非静力平衡中尺度/云模式对1999年6月23日08时~24日08时江淮地区一次梅雨锋系统降水过程进行了五种不同水平分辨率的数值模拟试验。模拟结果表明,提高模式水平分辨率,明显提高了大到暴雨的定量预报(大于25mm和大于50mm)的精度;但研究发现,这种精度的改进随着水平分辨率的进一步提高存在明显的阈界,即在水平分辨率提高到18公里以后,再提高水平分辨率,对暴雨预报成功率的改进幅度不大,因此,对于梅雨锋雨带中尺度强降水的业务预报,将模式水平分辨率提高到18公里比较适宜。

关 键 词:模式水平分辨率  梅雨锋暴雨  定量降水预报  QPF  大气环流  气象图分析  长江流域
文章编号:1000-4874(2004)01-0071-10

The effect of model horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecast for Meiyu front torrential rainfall
WANG Chun-ming,WANG Yuan,WU Rong-sheng Education,P. R. China.The effect of model horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecast for Meiyu front torrential rainfall[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,2004,19(1):71-80.
Authors:WANG Chun-ming  WANG Yuan  WU Rong-sheng Education  P R China
Abstract:Numerical simulations of five kinds of model horizontal resolution for a real Meiyu front torrential rainfall case during 08:00(Beijing time) June 23 to 08:00(Beijing time) June 24 in 1999 are studied by use of a nonhydrostatic mesoscale/cloud model based on compressible Navier-Stokes equations describing atmospheric flow. The results indicate that the increasing of model horizontal resolution does not improve the effect of quantitative precipitation forecast for all the classification precipitation. In fact, the effect of quantitative precipitation forecast for the light and median rain are descending while the threat score of heavy and torrential rain are obviously improved as the horizontal resolution increasing. Moreover, the amplitude of the improvement decreases after the horizontal resolution reaches up to 18km. Thus, for operational prediction model for the Meiyu front torrential rainfall, 18km is a suitable horizontal resolution.
Keywords:model horizontal resolution  quantitative precipitation forecast  Meiyu front torrential rainfall
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