基于灰色—拓扑模型的玛纳斯河年径流预测研究

新疆缺水,其径流丰枯变化规律一直备受关注。以新疆玛纳斯河为研究对象,以年径流频率为变量,采用拓扑原理计算实测频率的拓扑值。将对应的拓扑值作为变量,建立灰色模型GM(1,1),寻找实测玛纳斯河年径流的变化规律。建立了基于关联度、光滑离散函数等概念以及有限范围内近似的关联度收敛原理、生成数、灰微分方程等观念和方法,进而建立了微分方程动态模型。根据新疆玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站1963-2010年的平均径流量资料,建立河流年径流量灰色-拓扑模型,以年平均流量为预测检验值预测来验证模型的精度。预测结果的相对误差为21.5%,满足预测的精度要求。结果表明,灰色-拓扑模型对玛纳斯河的年径流结果是可行的。

Research on Annual Runoff Forecast Based on Gray-topology Model in Manas River

The water shortage is serious problem in Xinjiang, high runoff variation has been of con- cern. In this research, Manas River has been taken as an case. The topological principle principlesw has been used to calculate topology value of the measured frequency. As the topology of the corre- sponding variable gray model GM （ 1,1 ）, find measured Manas River annual runoff variation. The convergence principle based on the concept of associate degrees, smooth discrete functions, etc. , as well as the degree of the approximate correlation within the limited range, concepts and methods to generate the number of gray differential equations, thereby establishing a differential equation dynam- ic model. Ken Watts of Manas River hydrological stations 1963 to 2010, the average runoff data, the establishment of the rivers annual runoff gray - topology model predictive test value, the average an- nual flow forecasts to verify the accuracy of the model. The relative error 21.5% to meet the forecast accuracy requirements. The results show that suhs of the annual runoff of the Manas River is feasible. of the predicted results of gray- topology model results of the annual runoff of the Manas River is feasible.