| 改进GM（1,1）模型在台兰河灌区引水量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王桂智,唐德善.改进GM（1,1）模型在台兰河灌区引水量预测中的应用[J].水利科技与经济,2012(2):28-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王桂智 唐德善 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 台兰河流域灌区存在水量分配不均，水资源利用率低等特点，对本灌区年引水量进行模拟与预测具有重要意义。在传统GM（1，1）模型基础上，利用最小二乘原理，以原始序列与其模拟值的差值平方和最小为约束条件，构建改进GM（1，1）时间响应模型。结果表明，改进GM（1，1）模型模拟数据合理准确，精度较高，具有很强的实用性，可以运用于台兰河灌区引水量模拟与预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 改进GM（1 1）模型 引水量预测 台兰河灌区 |
Application of Improved GM （ 1, 1 ） Model in Predicting of Water Diversion of Tai lan River Irrigation Area |
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| WANG Gui-zhi,TANG De-shan.Application of Improved GM （ 1, 1 ） Model in Predicting of Water Diversion of Tai lan River Irrigation Area[J].Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy,2012(2):28-30. |
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| Authors: | WANG Gui-zhi TANG De-shan |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Gui - zhi, TANG De -shan ( Hohai University College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Nanjing 210098, China) |
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| Abstract: | The Tailan River irrigation area has features such as uneven distribution of water and the low rate in water resources utilization. It has important meaning to simulate and predict the water di- version in this area. In the base of traditional GM （ 1, 1 ） Model, using the least square principle andtreating the original series and the sum of square of the difference of simulation value as constraintconditions, building improved GM （ 1, 1 ） Model. The results show that the improved GM （ 1, 1 ）Model has high accuracy in data simulation and strong practicability. It can be used in the simulationand prediction in water diversion of Tai Lan River irrigation area. |
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| Keywords: | improved GM （ 1 1 ） model predicting of water diversion Tailand River irrigation area |
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