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Risk calculation method for complex engineering system
Authors:Li-ping WANG  Yan-ke ZHANG  Chang-ming JI  Ji-qing LI Renewable Energy School  North China Electric Power University  Beijing   P. R. China
Affiliation:Li-ping WANG,Yan-ke ZHANG*,Chang-ming JI,Ji-qing LI Renewable Energy School,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,P. R. China
Abstract:This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method (SMEM), which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same condi...
Keywords:simulated maximum entropy method  risk calculation  Monte Carlo method  complex engineering system  
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