济南市1972─2016年降水特性

运用线性滑动平均、Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验、Sen′s坡度、小波分析及多元线性回归方法,选取济南市24个降水站点45年(1972—2016年)逐日降水资料,分析了济南市在年和季节尺度上的降水特征以及降水量的决定性影响因素。结果表明:年降水量以8.23mm/(10a)的速率增加,且呈现出丰枯交替的变化周期,最大主周期为10a;降水量主要集中在夏季,占全年降水量的64.5%,冬季降水占比最小,占全年降水量的3.4%,春、夏和冬季降水具有不显著增加趋势,秋季的降水量具有不显著下降趋势;降水量的年际、春夏季变化主要受降水强度变化的影响;秋冬季变化则主要受降水频率变化的影响。

Characteristics of precipitation in Jinan City from 1972 to 2016

In recent years,under the dual influence of global warming and intensified human social activities,the hydrological cycle process has been greatly affected,and even changed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hydrological elements,directly affecting the regional water balance,and inducing natural disasters such as rainstorm,flood,heat wave,drought and so on.Therefore,the study of hydrological cycle process under changing environment has become one of the hot issues in the field of water science.Precipitation,as the most direct driving factor of urban waterlogging,is also the main component of hydrological cycle.The study on precipitation characteristics can reveal the characteristics of regional drought and waterlogging disasters more accurately.