青岛市工业需水量预测

确定了青岛市工业需水量影响因素的选择原则,并对青岛市工业需水量主要驱动因子进行定量辨识,初步确定出影响青岛市工业需水量的主要驱动因子。根据青岛市工业需水的实际情况,确定反映该地区特点的9个指标,采用RS理论进行属性约简,得到工业总产值、工业产值占国民经济总产值的比重、发电量、工业用水重复利用率以及人口数量等5个工业需水预测指标,并采用逐步回归方法建立青岛市工业需水量预测模型,对需水量进行预测。计算得出2015年、2020年和2030年的工业需水量分别为3.02亿m3、3.87亿m3和6.75亿m3。

Prediction of Industrial Water Demand in Qingdao City

In this paper,the selective principles of the main factors on the industrial water demand in Qingdao city are determined,and the driving factors of the industrial water demand in Qingdao city are also identified and determined.According to the practical situation of the industrial water demand in Qingdao city,nine prediction indexes are determined to reflect the demand,and the final five prediction indexes for industrial water demand are obtained from the simplification of the nine indexes based on the RS theory.The five prediction indexes include the gross industrial output value,the percent of the gross industrial output value of GDP,the generated electrical energy,the recycling rate of industrial water use,and the population.This paper builds a forecasting model of industrial water demand based on the stepwise regression approach and predicts the industrial water demand in Qingdao city.The results show that the industrial water demand is about 302,387,and 675 million cubic meter for year 2015,2020 and 2030,respectively.