时间序列分析在地下水位预报中的应用

依据北京市地下水位观测井月平均水位资料,运用逐步自回归模型、指数平滑模型、季节性模型3种时间序列模型分别建立地下水位动态模拟和预测模型,并对模型的模拟和预测精度进行对比分析。通过应用实例分析反映,时间序列模型可较全面地反映地下水位动态变化规律,且计算简单,所需资料较少且易于获得,可以作为一种简易快速的地下水位模拟预测模型,能为地下水资源合理开发利用和科学管理提供参考依据。

Application of Time-series Analysis Method on Groundwater Level Prediction

According to the month-average groundwater level data in Beijing, the dynamic simulating and forecasting model of groundwater level is established respectively by using autoregression model, index smooth model and seasonal model, and the accuracy of models is analyzed contrastively. The analysis of the application example shows that the time-series model synthetically reflects the variation rules of groundwater level. Because of simple computation and less demand of data, the time-series model is a simple simulation and forecast model of groundwater level and can supply referenced basis for reasonable using and scientific management of groundwater resources.