水-能源-粮食纽带关系定量研究方法综述

在总结水-能源-粮食纽带关系研究中, 使用频率较高或潜力较大的 8 种水-能源-粮食纽带关系定量研究方法为: 水-能源-粮食纽带关系工具 2.0( WEF Nexus Tool 2.0) ; 生命周期评价( LCA) ; 可计算的一般均衡模型( CGE) ; 系统动力学模型( SD) ; 气候、土地、能源与水资源策略( CLEWS) ; 基于社会生态系统代谢的多尺度综合评价( MuSIASEM ) ; 市场配置/ 市场配置系统集成模型( MARKAL/ TIMES) 和水资源评价规划模型-长期能源替代规划系统 ( WEAP2LEAP) 。通过总结各研究方法的产生、发展及特性, 并引用案例讨论其适用范围, 分析其优缺点和在使用 时需要注意的问题。在此基础上, 对未来水2能源2粮食纽带关系定量研究方法的发展趋势进行讨论, 认为伴随可持 续发展问题关注度的上升与水-能源-粮食纽带关系内在机理的挖掘, 未来的水-能源-粮食纽带关系定量研究方法将 更加注重量化的精确性和数据的互通以及跨学科研究和多方法的耦合。本文可为水-能源-粮食纽带关系定量研究方法的选择和更新优化提供参考。

WANG Yu, WANG Huixiao, YANG Yaxue, LI Hongfang

Eight quantitative WEF nexus ( the water-energy-foo d nexus) research methods are frequently used or have great potential in the current research of WEF nexus. These methods include WEFN exus Tool 2.0, Life Cycle A ssessment ( LCA) , Computable General Equilibrium model ( CGE) , System Dynamics modeling ( SD) , Climate, Land, Energy and Water Strategies ( CLEWS) , MultiScale Integrated Analysis of So cietal and Ecosystem Metabolism ( MuSIASEM ) , Market Allocation/ The Integrated MARKA L-EFOM System ( MARKAL / TIMES) and Water Evaluation and Planning-Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System ( WEAP-LEAP) . By summarizing the generation, development, and characteristics of 8 quantitative research methods, and citing cases to discuss their scope of application, the advantages and disadvantages of each research method and the key points that need to be paid attention for further use were analyzed. Besides, the tr end of the development of quantitative research methods of WEF nexus in the future was also discussed. It is believed that with the increasing attention on sustainable development and the ex- ploration of the internal mechanism of WEF nexus, the quantitative research met hods of WEF nex us may need more attention to the accuracy of quantification and the interoperability of data, as well as the interdisciplinary research and multi-methodcou- pling . This article can provide references for the selection and optimization of quantitative research methods of WEF nex us.