海河流域蒸发皿蒸发量变化及其影响

利用海河流域17个气象站1960-2012年气象资料,采用面板数据模型,分析海河流域蒸发皿蒸发量与相对湿度、风速、日照时数、平均气温、气温日较差的变化趋势及其回归关系,重点在于对海河流域"蒸发悖论"的影响因素进行分析,同时探究面板数据模型对水热平衡、气候变化的研究可行性,为水资源规划和管理提供科学参考。结果表明:(1)在1960-2012年间,海河流域的蒸发皿蒸发量以22.89mm/(10a)的速率呈现显著减少而气温以0.27℃/(10a)的速率呈上升趋势,该流域存在蒸发悖论现象。(2)利用面板数据模型对各数据进行单位根检验、Hausman检验和F检验,检验结果表明变系数固定效应模型更适用于海河流域蒸发皿蒸发量与其他气象因素的建模分析。(3)从单因子回归角度来看,日照时数对蒸发皿蒸发量变化的贡献值最大,然后依次是相对湿度、气温日较差、风速、平均气温;从全因子回归分析来看,蒸发皿蒸发量与相对湿度呈负相关关系,与日照时数、平均气温、气温日较差、风速呈正相关关系;从平均气温和气温日较差分别拟合的效果来看,平均气温更适合于该模型拟合;对比平均气温和日照时数的回归结果,全球变暗对蒸发皿蒸发量变化的贡献值大于全球变暖。

Analysis of variation in pan evaporation and its influencing factors in Haihe River Basin

Based on meteor olog ical dat a o f 17 meteor olog ical statio ns from 1960 to 2012 in H aihe River Basin, the panel data model was used to analyze the variatio n t rend and reg ressio n relat ionship betw een pan ev apo ratio n and o ther climate v ariables such as r elative humidity, wind speed, sunshine ho urs, aver age temperature and diurnal temper atur e r ang e. T his paper was fo2 cused on analy zing the influencing factors of the " evapor ation par ado x" in the H aihe River Basin, and ex ploring the feasibility of the panel data model for the study of w ater and heat balance and climate chang e. The r esults showed t hat during the period from 1960 to 2012, pan ev apo ratio n show ed a significant decrease at t he rate o f 221 89 mm/ ( 10a) and aver age t em perat ur e in2 cr eased at a rate o f 01 27 e / ( 10a) , r espectiv ely. There w as a phenomeno n o f evapor ation paradox exist in t he basin. Based on the Unit Root test, H ausman test and F2test, the results showed that t he variable coefficient of the fix ed effect mo del was mor e suitable fo r mo deling and analy sis o f pan evapor ation and o ther meteoro lo gical fact ors in the Haihe River Basin. From the per2 spect ive of sing le facto r reg ressio n, the co ntribut ion of sunshine hours to the pan ev apo ration w as the larg est, fo llow ed by rela2 tive humidit y, diur nal temper ature rang e, w ind speed and av erag e temper ature. The full factor reg ression analysis show ed t hat the pan evapor ation w as negatively co rr elated w ith relativ e humidity, and was po sitiv ely co rrelated w ith sunshine hours, av erag e temper atur e, diurnal temperatur e range and w ind speed. In t erms of fit ting effects of the averag e temper atur e and diur na l tem2 peratur e r ang e respect ively, the av erag e t emperat ur e was mor e suit able for the model fit ting. Comparing the reg ression r esults of aver age temperature and sunshine hours, the g lo bal dimming contributed mor e to the change in pan ev apo ration than global warming.