油罗口水库溃坝洪水计算与风险评估 |
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作者姓名: | 董建良 吴欢强 傅琼华 |
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作者单位: | 1. 江西省水利科学研究院,南昌,330029 2. 广东省珠荣工程设计有限公司,广州,510635 |
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摘 要: | 针对5000年一遇校核洪水副坝可能发生管涌导致溃坝的情况,应用Breach数学模型和River2D二维洪水演进计算软件,计算了最初7h溃口流量与时间关系过程线,建立了坝址至下游赣州钴冶炼厂段有限单元数值模型,模拟了副坝溃决后研究范围内的洪水演进过程,估算了生命损失值,分析了生命社会风险。结果表明,副坝发生溃坝后,洪水将影响到2个行政村(镇)、15个自然村(区),受灾人口达70 462人,溃坝警报时间小于或等于5h,生命损失值达百人以上,生命社会风险是不可容忍的。该研究成果可作为水库制定大坝安全管理应急预案的参考依据。
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关 键 词: | 溃坝洪水 洪水演进 淹没范围 风险评估 数值模拟 生命损失 |
Dam2break flood calculation and risk assessment of Youluokou Reservoir |
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Authors: | DONG Jian-liang WU H uan-qiang FU Qiong-hua |
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Affiliation: | 1. J iang x i Pr ov incial I ns titute o f Water S ciences , N anchang 330029, China;
2. Guangdong Zhur ong Engineer ing Design Co . , L td. , Guangz hou 510635, China) |
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Abstract: | The once2in250002y ears check flo od in the aux iliar y dam can cause piping effect and dam2br eak. In this paper, Breach
mathematica l model and t wo2dimensional flo od routing so ftw are Riv er2D wer e used t o calculate the hydro gr aph o f flow rate at
the breach w ith time dur ing the init ial seven hours and to develop a finite element numer ical mo del from the dam to the down2
str eam of Ganzho u cobalt refiner y plant. T he mo del can simulat e the flo od ro ut ing pro cess in the st udy area after the break of
aux iliar y dam, estimate the loss value of life, and analy ze the so cial r isk o f life. The results show ed that after the break of aux il2
iary dam, floo d can affect two administr ative v illages( tow ns) , 15 villag es( distr icts) , and 70 462 people. When the dam failure a2
larm time w as less than o r equal to 5 ho ur s, the lo ss v alue of life can reach more t han a hundred and the risk w as unbea rable.
The research results can pro vide an important basis for the development o f dam safety manag ement conting ency plans. |
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Keywords: | dam bur sting floo d floo d r outing submerg ed a rea r isk assessment numerical simulation loss of life |
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