基于GIS的城市洪水灾害风险评价及时空演变研究——以哈尔滨市为例

准确掌握洪水灾害风险的时空演变规律对城市防灾布局具有重要意义。利用集成化洪水灾害风险指数对哈尔滨市洪水灾害风险进行了评价,并利用马尔科夫链对洪水灾害风险的时空变化进行了分析。研究发现,2000年-2010年哈尔滨市高风险区面积逐渐增加,较高风险区和中等风险区面积逐渐减少,低风险区和较低风险区面积逐渐增加,但变化较小。十年来整个市区内洪水灾害风险的高风险逐渐增加,整体风险呈增加趋势,但局部变化不一。各等级风险之间,中等风险和高风险转换较活跃,低风险和较低风险之间转换较稳定,而其它风险区与高风险之间转换最为活跃。

Research on Risk Assessment and Spatio-Temporal Variation of Urban Flood Disaster Based on GIS-----a case study in Harbin

Accurate knowledge of the spatial and temporal variations of flood disaster risk is of important significance for determining layout of urban disaster prevention. In this study, integrated flood risk index was used to evaluate the flood disaster risk in Harbin, and Markov Chain was used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of flood disaster risk. The results showed that (1) the area with very high flood risk in Harbin has increased, the area with relative high and moderate flood risks has decreased, and the area with low flood risk has increased from 2000 to 2010;(2) the high level of flood disaster risk has increased gradually in the ten years, and the overall risk has increased but with different local variations; and (3) the interchange between middle risk level and high risk level is frequent, while the interchange between low risk level and lower risk level is relatively stable. Moreover, the interchange between high risk level and other risk levels are very active.