石羊河流域气候暖湿化变化特征分析

根据石羊河流域47年的气温、降水量、干旱指数等资料,分析该流域暖湿化变化特征。研究表明：①近47年来,石羊河流域每10年的年际平均增温达到0.32℃,20世纪60—80年代期间,各季节平均气温变暖不明显,年平均气温大多处在负距平。90年代末期到21世纪初期,各季节平均气温均呈上升趋势,冬季增温显著,气温距平从-1.04℃上升到1.87℃。②降水量总体呈上升趋势,但增长趋势不显著,降水量每10年增长7.1 mm,与西北地区降水增加趋势一致。③年平均干旱指数总体呈下降趋势,但趋势不明显,其干旱指数每10年下降0.98。④通过Mann-Kendall方法验证,1994年为增温突变年,降水没有达到突变水平,1992和1993年为干旱指数下降突变年。研究发现,石羊河流域气候正趋于暖湿化,这将有利于该区绿洲的发展,对当地经济发展极为有利。

Analysis of climate change towards warming-wetting trend in Shiyang River Basin

Based on data on air temperature,precipitation,and the drought index of the Shiyang River Basin over the last 47 years,the warming-wetting trend in this basin was analyzed.The results show the following：（ 1） The average temperature of the Shiyang River Basin showed an escalating trend at 0.32℃ per ten years over the last 47years.During the period from the 1960s to the 1980s,the seasonal average temperature showed an insignificantly escalating trend and the annual average temperature showed a negative anomaly.During the period from the late1990s to the early 21st century,the seasonal average temperature showed an increasing trend,which was evident in winter,and the temperature anomaly increased from- 1.04℃ to 1.87℃.（ 2） The precipitation showed an overall ascendant trend,but the rising trend was not significant; the precipitation increased by 7.1 mm per ten years,which was consistent with the increasing trend of the precipitation in the northwestern area.（ 3） The annual average drought index decreased on the whole,but the decreasing trend was not significant; the reduction rate was- 0.98per ten years.（ 4） Through the Mann-Kendall test,it was found that the temperature increased abruptly in 1994,the precipitation did not change abruptly,and the drought index decreased abruptly in 1992 and 1993.This study shows that the climate in the Shiyang River Basin is becoming warm and humid,which will facilitate oasis development and economic development in this area.