| 磨刀门水道枯水期咸潮变化趋势及成因 |
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| 引用本文： | 王艺霖,苏程佳,陈晓宏,王佳雯. 磨刀门水道枯水期咸潮变化趋势及成因[J]. 水资源保护, 2019, 35(2): 37-43 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王艺霖 苏程佳 陈晓宏 王佳雯 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心;华南地区水循环与水安全广东普通高校重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(91547202,51479216) |
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| 摘 要： | 在对1998—2015年磨刀门水道咸潮上溯不同时间尺度变化特征进行统计分析的基础上,采用Spearman秩相关分析识别流量、海平面、平均潮差、最高潮位、最低潮位以及降雨量等因素与咸度超标时数之间的相关性,利用主成分分析确定各因素对咸潮上溯活动变化的贡献程度。研究结果表明:1998—2015年,磨刀门水道枯水期的咸潮上溯活动表现出两阶段的变化特征,以2004—2005年枯水期为分界点,第一阶段的咸度超标时数呈现出先下降后上升的"V"型变化特征,第二阶段则总体表现为下降趋势,有利于河口地区的供水安全;咸潮高超标时数主要集中在每年12月至次年2月,且变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致;流量、海平面和最低潮位与咸度超标时数相关性显著,且通过了99%的显著性水平检验,而海平面与咸度超标时数的相关关系(负相关)与理论结果不一致是受到了人为活动的影响;引起第一阶段咸度超标时数"V"型变化的主要原因是自然因素(降雨)的影响,而第二阶段咸度超标时数整体呈下降趋势的原因除了自然因素外,还包括调水压咸等人为活动的干扰。
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| 关 键 词： | 咸潮上溯 因素识别 Spearman秩相关分析 主成分分析 磨刀门水道 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-04-25 |
Change trend and cause of salt tide in Modaomen Channel during dry seasons |
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| WANG Yilin,SU Chengji,CHEN Xiaohong and WANG Jiawen. Change trend and cause of salt tide in Modaomen Channel during dry seasons[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2019, 35(2): 37-43 |
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| Authors: | WANG Yilin SU Chengji CHEN Xiaohong WANG Jiawen |
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| Affiliation: | Center for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China,Center for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China,Center for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China and Center for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | salt tide intrusion factor identification Spearman rank correlation analysis principal component analysis Modaomen Channel |
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