南方季节性缺水河流逐月保证率设定法的改进

改进计算生态基流的逐月保证率设定法以适用于南方季节性缺水河流。构建逐月保证率设定模型，综合分析各类影响设定保证率因素，构建模型评价指标体系及评价标准，耦合AHP与熵值法求解指标组合权重，运用模糊综合评价法求评价值，并通过对比Tennant法、年内展布法等耦合最终适宜生态基流过程。以秦淮河流域为例，将计算结果与传统逐月保证率设定法计算结果对比，验证了改进方法的可靠性与优越性。

Improvement on monthly guarantee rate setting method for seasonal water shortage rivers in South China

The monthly guarantee rate setting method for the calculation of ecological baseflow was improved to apply to the seasonal water shortage rivers in South China. The monthly guarantee rate setting model was constructed and various factors affecting the setting guarantee rate were comprehensively analyzed. The model evaluation index system and evaluation standards were constructed coupling with AHP and entropy method to solve the combination weight of the indexes. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was employed to solve the evaluation value and final suitable ecological baseflow process was obtained by comparing the couple of Tennant method and annual distribution method. In the case of Qinhuai River Basin, the calculated results were compared with the traditional monthly guarantee rate setting method which verified the reliability and superiority of the improved method.